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New York, NY, December 11, 2024 —  Today, the ̽����ѡ (̽����ѡ) unveils its annual Emergency Watchlist, highlighting the 20 countries most likely to face escalating humanitarian crisis in 2025. The top five crises are Sudan, occupied Palestinian territory, Myanmar, Syria and South Sudan.  

305 million people worldwide are in need of humanitarian support. Watchlist countries account for 82% of this figure, despite only comprising 11% of the global population. 77% of the world’s displaced are due to crises in Watchlist countries. Watchlist countries account for over 30% and counting of the world’s extreme poor.

This year’s Emergency Watchlist speaks to “A World Out of Balance,” as the catalyst for new crises and the obstacle in bringing them to heel. The four deep-seated imbalances in the international system that drive crisis are: 

• More conflict and less diplomacy is the most obvious and most dangerous symptom of the world out of balance. There are now a record conflicts in 2023, the highest since World War II. 
• Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are increasingly central to battle strategy. The number of attacks on civilians by state and non-state armed groups around the globe has increased by between 2013 and 2023, and 74% were in Watchlist countries. 
• More carbon emissions and less support for people suffering from the climate crisis are the third imbalance. Watchlist countries contribute less than 4% of global CO2 emissions, but over one-third of all people made homeless or displaced by natural hazards over the past 5 years were in Watchlist countries.
• Finally, more wealth accumulation, less poverty alleviation. On average, poverty levels in Watchlist countries are now almost 85% higher than they were in the mid-2000s, whereas they have fallen 37% in the rest of the world over the same period. 

The ̽����ѡ suggests an agenda for action in six categories.

1. Reform the humanitarian aid system, using  and cost effectiveness tools to drive value for money.
2. Relieve debt burdens, expand financing and promote economic stability to address crisis drivers and promote shared prosperity.
3. Improve civilian protection by reforming the U.N. Security Council to increase representation, and suspend use of the veto in cases of mass atrocity.
4. Ease civilian suffering by protecting humanitarian access, ensuring aid can be safely delivered to those in need.
5. Invest in climate adaptation and resilience to mitigate the impacts of climate shocks.
6. Expand safe pathways and assistance for refugees to strengthen protection and inclusion.

David Miliband, President & CEO of the ̽����ѡ, said,

“It is clear that “the world is on fire” is a daily reality for 100s of millions of people.  This is the result of a world fundamentally out of balance.  As a humanitarian agency, ̽����ѡ’s job is to meet needs, but also call them out.  This is the purpose of the Emergency Watchlist published today.  

“The concentration of extreme poverty is remarkable. The world is being cleaved into two camps: between those born in unstable conflict states, and those with a chance to make it in stable states. This is a trend that needs to be addressed for moral and strategic reasons.  The moral case is that with more resources than ever before, they need to be used to help the world's most vulnerable. The strategic case is that problems that start in Sudan or Syria do not stay there: instability spreads.

“Business as usual will not reverse this trend. Civilians will continue to suffer the worst impacts of burgeoning conflict and risk perilous journeys if we don’t break with the status quo. The international community has both an incredible opportunity and responsibility to change the terms of humanitarian and diplomatic engagement in Watchlist countries. And while the challenges in these countries are complex, the ̽����ѡ’s experience shows that there are ways to save lives, build resilience, and preserve the livelihoods of the most vulnerable.” 

Notes to Editors:

For the past decade, The ̽����ѡ’s Emergency Watchlist report has helped the ̽����ѡ determine where to focus our emergency preparedness efforts, successfully predicting on average 85-95% of the 20 countries facing the worst deteriorations. It is also where we share our analysis of how global humanitarian crisis is evolving, why, and what can be done to reduce the impact on affected communities.

̽����ѡ’s 2025 Emergency Watchlist At A Glance
 

Ranked Top 10

1. Sudan
2. occupied Palestinian territory (oPt)
3. Myanmar
4. Syria
5. South Sudan
6. Lebanon
7. Burkina Faso
8. Haiti
9. Mali
10. Somalia

Unranked Second Half

• Afghanistan
• Cameroon
• CAR
• Chad
• DRC
• Ethiopia
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Ukraine
• Yemen

Now the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, the largest displacement crisis in the world, and heading towards one of the world’s worst famines in decades, Sudan is at the top of the Emergency Watchlist for the second year running. The country’s collapse is accelerating as a brutal civil war, fueled by outside powers, devastates the lives of civilians. Far from working towards a diplomatic resolution, leaders of both factions seem to believe that continued fighting best serves their interests, putting Sudan on course for devastating humanitarian collapse in 2025.

The occupied Palestinian territory remains second on the Watchlist after more than a year of conflict that has devastated Gaza and significantly worsened conditions in the West Bank. There is no safe place in Gaza: over 1 in 50 people in Gaza have been killed since October 2023, and without a lasting ceasefire and restrictions on imports being eased, casualties will increase and there will be a risk of famine in 2025.

Third on the list, Myanmar has seen armed groups unite and advance rapidly across the country, causing nearly 900,000 people to flee their homes - a 37% increase from 2023. The balance tilts firmly towards more war this year. Cholera and other diseases threaten to overwhelm Myanmar’s health system, which has been decimated by conflict. Flooding, and other climate-induced disasters mean that the country’s ability to cope with additional needs will be pushed to the brink in the year ahead.

Syria re-enters the Emergency Watchlist’s top five for the first time since 2021 after nonstate armed groups launched a surprise offensive in late 2024, triggering a rapid collapse of government forces. As Watchlist goes to print, the situation is highly uncertain. Whether the latest shifts in the conflict will allow Syrians to start rebuilding their lives in 2025 or deepen the crisis remains an open question.

Ripple effects from the conflict in Sudan exposes South Sudan to a growing economic crisis, while the arrival of over 878,000 people fleeing Sudan’s war adds to the challenges facing the country. The delivery of humanitarian aid is treacherous, with at least attacks on aid workers over the course of 2024 highlighting the reality that South Sudan is one of the most dangerous places for aid workers. This will make efforts to respond to the deepening crisis even more treacherous in 2025.